In a groundbreaking revelation, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Dr. Olayemi Cardoso, has provided insights into potential reductions in fuel prices and inflation, attributing the positive outlook to the apex bank’s inflation-targeting policy. Dr. Cardoso made these remarks during his keynote address at the launch of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group’s (NESG) Macroeconomic Outlook for 2024 in Lagos.
The governor expressed confidence that the nation is at a turning point, with ongoing reforms across various economic segments aimed at addressing challenges sustainably. International rating agencies such as Fitch and Moody’s have reportedly recognized these efforts, upgrading Nigeria’s ratings from stable to positive.
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One of the pivotal factors contributing to the expected economic improvements is the anticipated stabilization or reduction in fuel costs, particularly for premium motor spirit (PMS), also known as petrol. Dr. Cardoso highlighted the significance of the operational status of key government and privately-owned refineries in 2024 in influencing this positive economic equation.
The CBN’s inflation-targeting policy, with a goal to rein in inflation to 21.4 percent, is expected to play a crucial role in curbing inflationary pressures in 2024. The governor emphasized that improved agricultural productivity and the easing of global supply chain pressures will further contribute to this decline, benefiting businesses and boosting consumer confidence.
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The return to a conventional monetary policy approach focused on achieving price stability for sustainable economic growth, coupled with initiatives in foreign exchange collaboration, is yielding positive results. The expected stability in the foreign exchange market for 2024 is attributed to reduced petroleum product imports and the implementation of a market-determined exchange rate policy.
Optimism surrounds the nation’s economic trajectory, with projections indicating a real GDP growth of 3.76 percent in 2024. The services sector is expected to dominate, driven by factors such as mobile money adoption and increased government partnerships. The agriculture sector anticipates faster growth due to improved productivity, and the industry sector is tied to increased crude oil production.
In parallel developments, the Federal Government is targeting a 77 percent increase in Internally Generated Revenue (IGR), aiming to achieve an 18 percent tax-to-GDP ratio. Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, expressed hope in the newly integrated tax approach, emphasizing the need to shift from expensive debts to domestic revenue mobilization.
As the nation sets its sights on economic recovery and growth, these developments signal potential relief for consumers through reduced fuel costs and a more stable economic environment. The positive outlook aligns with the government’s commitment to implementing reforms and fostering sustainable economic development.
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